Methodology
Where every number comes from, how the forecasts work, and how often they've been right.
Where the data comes from
- Declared dividends are read from each company's own regulatory announcements, published on the FCA's National Storage Mechanism. A language model extracts the amount, dates and type; automatic checks hold back anything implausible (dates out of order, an amount far from the company's usual dividend) until a person has reviewed it. Every declared dividend links to the announcement it came from.We check our reading against independent market data: of 1,125 past dividends both have, 95% match on the amount and 96% on the ex-dividend date.
- History comes from public market data, checked against the companies' own announcements wherever we have them: the announced amount wins, and any gap of more than 2% is reviewed. Amounts are adjusted for share splits and consolidations. Prices come from public market data.
- Yields: trailing yield is the regular dividends with an ex-date in the last 12 months divided by the latest price. Forward yield uses the next 12 months of declared and forecast dividends.
- Streaks count complete calendar years. Growth means the year's total went up by more than 0.5%; "no cut" means it didn't fall by more than 0.5% (so currency wobbles in dividends declared in dollars or euros don't break a streak). A year with a lower total but more payments than the year before is a change of payment schedule (say, from twice a year to quarterly), not a cut. Special dividends are left out of yields, streaks and growth.
What the statuses mean
- Declared: the company has announced the amount and dates.
- Proposed: announced, but subject to shareholders' approval (usually a final dividend at the AGM).
- Date declared: the ex-date is known; the amount shown is our forecast.
- Awaiting payment: gone ex-dividend, not paid yet.
- Forecast: our estimate, with a confidence level. At risk means the company cancelled a dividend in the last year.
How forecasts are made
Until a company declares, we repeat each of its regular payments from the last 12 months 52 weeks later (so a Thursday ex-date stays a Thursday), grown by the change in its last-12-month total, capped at +10% a year. A recent cut carries forward but is never extrapolated. As soon as a dividend is declared, the declaration replaces the forecast.
Confidence comes from how steady the payout has been: how much each payment of the last two years differed from the same payment a year before. High is within 5%, medium within 20%, and lowis more than that or under two years of history. We tested smarter-sounding rules (averaging recent payments, medians, two-year averages) and none beat this one, so we kept it and made the confidence honest instead.
How accurate the forecasts are
We replay the forecast as of the first of every month over the last three years, using only the history known at the time, and compare it with what was then paid.
For shares: of 47,521 forecast payments across 750 companies,92% were paid, and 89% of actual payments had been forecast. For those paid, the median amount was 4.0% off, and 55% were within 5%.
ETFs are harder: their distributions follow whatever their holdings pay, so amounts vary from one payment to the next. Across 781 ETFs, 97% of forecast payments came, but the median amount was 11.2% off. ETF forecasts are mostly marked low or medium confidence for that reason.
| Confidence | Forecasts | Paid | Median amount error | Within 5% | Median date error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 47,521 | 92.1% | 4.0% | 55.2% | 0 days |
| High | 21,459 | 94.2% | 1.8% | 73.4% | 0 days |
| Medium | 12,172 | 93.9% | 5.7% | 46.9% | 0 days |
| Low | 13,890 | 87.3% | 10.0% | 32.5% | 0 days |
Model pattern-v2. A forecast counts as paid when a dividend went ex within half a payment interval (at most 45 days) of the forecast date.
Dividend cover
Dividend cover is a financial year's earnings per share divided by the dividends for that year: 2× means profits would pay the dividend twice over; under 1× means the dividend took more than the year's profit, which can't go on for ever. A loss shows as "not covered".
- Earnings are diluted earnings per share from public market data, in the company's reporting currency (Shell reports in dollars, Vodafone in euros), converted to sterling.
- Which dividends count: those that went ex from eight months before the year end to five months after it, so the interim and the final (or all four quarterlies) are matched to the year they were paid for. A year is only shown once its final dividend has had time to be declared.
- Only operating companies get a cover. Investment trusts and funds pay dividends from income and reserves, and their "earnings" include investment gains, so a cover would mislead; it's left blank.
- Earnings are what the company reported, including one-off gains and write-downs, so a single year can look better or worse than the business is doing: the stock page shows the last few years.
Limits
- Dividends declared in dollars or euros (Shell, BP, Unilever and others) are shown in pence once the sterling amount is announced; before that, in the declared currency.
- A dividend paid late in a given year can make that year look like a cut and the next like growth.
- This is information, not advice. Always check the announcement before acting on a figure.